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Predicting and disrupting transmission of human parasites from wildlife hosts or vectors remains challenging because ecological interactions can influence their epidemiological traits. Human schistosomes, parasitic flatworms that cycle between freshwater snails and humans, typify this challenge. Human exposure risk, given water contact, is driven by the production of free-living cercariae by snail populations. Conventional epidemiological models and management focus on the density of infected snails under the assumption that all snails are equally infectious. However, individual-level experiments contradict this assumption, showing increased production of schistosome cercariae with greater access to food resources. We built bioenergetics theory to predict how resource competition among snails drives the temporal dynamics of transmission potential to humans and tested these predictions with experimental epidemics and demonstrated consistency with field observations. This resource-explicit approach predicted an intense pulse of transmission potential when snail populations grow from low densities, i.e., when per capita access to resources is greatest, due to the resource-dependence of cercarial production. The experiment confirmed this prediction, identifying a strong effect of infected host size and the biomass of competitors on per capita cercarial production. A field survey of 109 waterbodies also found that per capita cercarial production decreased as competitor biomass increased. Further quantification of snail densities, sizes, cercarial production, and resources in diverse transmission sites is needed to assess the epidemiological importance of resource competition and support snail-based disruption of schistosome transmission. More broadly, this work illustrates how resource competition can sever the correspondence between infectious host density and transmission potential. 

Global climate change is increasing the frequency of unpredictable weather conditions; however, it remains unclear how species‐level and geographic factors, including body size and latitude, moderate impacts of unusually warm or cool temperatures on disease. Because larger and lower‐latitude hosts generally have slower acclimation times than smaller and higher‐latitude hosts, we hypothesised that their disease susceptibility increases under ‘thermal mismatches’ or differences between baseline climate and the temperature during surveying for disease. Here, we examined how thermal mismatches interact with body size, life stage, habitat, latitude, elevation, phylogeny and International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) conservation status to predict infection prevalence of the chytrid fungusBatrachochytrium dendrobatidis(Bd) in a global analysis of 32 291 amphibian hosts. As hypothesised, we found that the susceptibility of larger hosts and hosts from lower latitudes toBdwas influenced by thermal mismatches. Furthermore, hosts of conservation concern were more susceptible than others following thermal mismatches, suggesting that thermal mismatches might have contributed to recent amphibian declines.

 

Complex ecological relationships, such as host–parasite interactions, are often modeled with laboratory experiments. However, some experimental laboratory conditions, such as temperature or infection dose, are regularly chosen based on convenience or convention, and it is unclear how these decisions systematically affect experimental outcomes. Here, we conducted a meta‐analysis of 58 laboratory studies that exposed amphibians to the pathogenic fungusBatrachochytrium dendrobatidis(Bd) to understand better how laboratory temperature, host life stage, infection dose, and host species affect host mortality. We found that host mortality was driven by thermal mismatches: hosts native to cooler environments experienced greater Bd‐induced mortality at relatively warm experimental temperatures and vice versa. We also found that Bd dose positively predicted Bd‐induced host mortality and that the superfamilies Bufonoidea and Hyloidea were especially susceptible to Bd. Finally, the effect of Bd on host mortality varied across host life stages, with larval amphibians experiencing lower risk of Bd‐induced mortality than adults or metamorphs. Metamorphs were especially susceptible and experienced mortality when inoculated with much smaller Bd doses than the average dose used by researchers. Our results suggest that when designing experiments on species interactions, researchers should carefully consider the experimental temperature, inoculum dose, and life stage, and taxonomy of the host species.